第41~48回(1996-2017)

[雑多なデータ&分析]
惜敗率は四捨五入で計算したため、接戦区では100%となっている場合がある 区割り変更で実態が変わった選挙区があることに注意 : 衆41 衆42 衆43 衆44 衆45 衆46 衆47 衆48 : -------------------------------------------------- 北海01: 55% 57% 62% 89% 68% 93% 91% 87% : 北海02: 86% 84% 77% 98% 57% 66% 64% 71% : 北海03: 95% 94% 97% 90% 61% 73% 92% 84% : 北海04: 91% 92% 83% 93% 50% 67% 90% 87% : 北海05: 55% 68% 93% 72% 83% 54% 72% 95% : 北海06: 61% 97% 99% 98% 68% 67% 97% 84% : 北海07: 95% 91% 85% 91% 99% 70% 100% 50% : 北海08: 86% 90% 70% 85% 34% 72% 93% 80% : 北海09: 52% 98% 84% 87% 39% 51% 88% 81% : 北海10: 72% 82% 88% 72% 56% 72% 82% 99% : 北海11: 69% 51% 47% 79% 76% 81% 70% 84% : 北海12: 76% 74% 70% 82% 89% 58% 67% 60% : 北海13: 66% 64% : 青森01: 83% 42% 92% 84% 68% 65% 94% 62% : 青森02: 99% 92% 22% 51% 74% 23% 35% 42% : 青森03: 84% 69% 81% 81% 100% 62% 83% 40% : 青森04: 70% 29% 37% 36% 87% 34% 48% : 岩手01: 74% 88% 64% 69% 43% 79% 60% 66% : 岩手02: 87% 45% 62% 81% 82% 66% 84% 76% : 岩手03: 57% 89% 85% 68% 47% 69% 57% 74% : 岩手04: 31% 31% 29% 39% 31% 61% 77% : 宮城01: 73% 83% 79% 98% 58% 70% 87% 79% : 宮城02: 92% 88% 97% 76% 62% 59% 66% 99% : 宮城03: 65% 49% 100% 80% 79% 53% 64% 44% : 宮城04: 79% 48% 80% 69% 77% 68% 51% 47% : 宮城05: 92% 98% 88% 88% 71% 48% 53% 56% : 宮城06: 99% 75% 71% 49% 54% 22% 32% 17% : 秋田01: 89% 99% 73% 89% 66% 67% 87% 68% : 秋田02: 62% 55% 51% 66% 99% 63% 69% 98% : 秋田03: 57% 27% 88% 72% 89% 77% 94% 87% : 山形01: 75% 78% 81% 69% 99% 69% 47% 60% : 山形02: 79% 83% 86% 82% 49% 81% 92% 84% : 山形03: 62% 63% 62% 31% 62% 98% 98% 79% : 山形04: 34% 28% : 福島01: 91% 77% 98% 64% 87% 41% 95% 90% : 福島02: 89% 68% 87% 80% 85% 28% 64% 61% : 福島03: 96% 77% 85% 46% 36% 45% 52% 65% : 福島04: 93% 86% 80% 93% 54% 70% 99% 98% : 福島05: 100% 68% 84% 82% 66% 89% 84% 60% : 茨城01: 55% 40% 60% 60% 61% 64% 73% 82% : 茨城02: 50% 40% 44% 47% 98% 42% 30% 55% : 茨城03: 66% 81% 90% 73% 70% 41% 46% 45% : 茨城04: 34% 20% 24% 49% 93% 43% 43% 30% : 茨城05: 77% 95% 79% 94% 59% 85% 89% 91% : 茨城06: 36% 41% 57% 54% 77% 50% 71% 94% : 茨城07: 72% 59% 46% 91% 85% 73% 74% 81% : 栃木01: 45% 85% 83% 73% 76% 56% 58% 47% : 栃木02: 76% 96% 62% 88% 57% 83% 100% 87% : 栃木03: 20% 20% 24% 42% 5% 58% 82% 58% : 栃木04: 71% 57% 83% 77% 78% 45% 54% 69% : 栃木05: 90% 45% 28% 45% 91% 38% 31% 46% : 群馬01: 53% 46% 53% 57% 90% 49% 88% 77% : 群馬02: 73% 74% 75% 99% 79% 59% 63% 54% : 群馬03: 48% 61% 73% 63% 82% 45% 59% 81% : 群馬04: 61% 52% 49% 48% 88% 46% 40% 39% : 群馬05: 26% 22% 19% 36% 35% 17% 21% 28% : 埼玉01: 94% 83% 51% 97% 48% 80% 78% 71% : 埼玉02: 99% 96% 80% 76% 80% 48% 54% 59% : 埼玉03: 86% 83% 99% 78% 62% 67% 70% 77% : 埼玉04: 65% 66% 86% 83% 62% 75% 70% 68% : 埼玉05: 86% 81% 63% 89% 65% 90% 96% 65% : 埼玉06: 88% 97% 92% 99% 45% 100% 91% 87% : 埼玉07: 60% 70% 91% 87% 63% 57% 83% 86% : 埼玉08: 94% 97% 98% 66% 80% 54% 66% 66% : 埼玉09: 60% 74% 91% 70% 73% 46% 54% 52% : 埼玉10: 58% 68% 86% 67% 77% 66% 78% 77% : 埼玉11: 66% 87% 43% 95% 36% 46% 53% 57% : 埼玉12: 96% 84% 79% 65% 72% 84% 79% 99% : 埼玉13: 45% 32% 99% 69% 70% 58% 50% 55% : 埼玉14: 99% 58% 83% 72% 69% 85% 76% 64% : 埼玉15: 72% 80% 71% 56% 62% 51% : 千葉01: 52% 73% 89% 85% 66% 91% 91% 98% : 千葉02: 80% 89% 84% 91% 58% 54% 48% 50% : 千葉03: 86% 67% 99% 79% 77% 39% 35% 61% : 千葉04: 100% 65% 59% 99% 53% 44% 57% 47% : 千葉05: 94% 80% 84% 71% 65% 63% 54% 59% : 千葉06: 91% 94% 94% 74% 67% 66% 65% 86% : 千葉07: 75% 77% 87% 88% 83% 28% 44% 45% : 千葉08: 90% 97% 95% 77% 70% 61% 71% 71% : 千葉09: 95% 69% 86% 56% 74% 79% 81% 83% : 千葉10: 39% 30% 86% 70% 91% 57% 67% 74% : 千葉11: 39% 34% 46% 49% 96% 37% 35% 44% : 千葉12: 60% 46% 76% 64% 86% 42% 35% 30% : 千葉13: 93% 71% 68% 67% 67% 62% : 東京01: 78% 97% 99% 68% 92% 99% 83% 97% : 東京02: 78% 92% 88% 77% 71% 76% 56% 81% : 東京03: 93% 98% 93% 82% 74% 98% 96% 88% : 東京04: 59% 64% 86% 72% 94% 46% 45% 46% : 東京05: 61% 95% 93% 73% 81% 77% 65% 98% : 東京06: 76% 59% 60% 95% 59% 71% 80% 98% : 東京07: 88% 94% 84% 86% 47% 78% 80% 73% : 東京08: 90% 73% 57% 58% 79% 54% 63% 76% : 東京09: 88% 95% 86% 57% 90% 38% 53% 53% : 東京10: 86% 90% 94% 46% 92% 44% 47% 77% : 東京11: 90% 72% 77% 58% 97% 42% 33% 58% : 東京12: 98% 72% 96% 67% 92% 49% 51% 74% : 東京13: 92% 59% 98% 62% 97% 41% 38% 56% : 東京14: 96% 88% 95% 58% 85% 44% 72% 61% : 東京15: 76% 97% 85% 65% 76% 84% 97% 70% : 東京16: 84% 95% 88% 58% 89% 49% 58% 85% : 東京17: 86% 78% 46% 42% 77% 34% 37% 39% : 東京18: 21% 43% 60% 94% 54% 88% 85% 99% : 東京19: 71% 61% 65% 96% 62% 80% 81% 94% : 東京20: 98% 63% 73% 96% 70% 63% 47% 54% : 東京21: 89% 74% 88% 90% 56% 85% 98% 96% : 東京22: 92% 75% 92% 71% 76% 57% 69% 82% : 東京23: 55% 87% 87% 66% 64% 73% 61% 69% : 東京24: 86% 89% 98% 71% 82% 50% 57% 50% : 東京25: 86% 71% 88% 58% 46% 29% 33% 40% : 神奈01: 98% 89% 87% 59% 87% 50% 60% 76% : 神奈02: 94% 97% 81% 57% 100% 52% 32% 38% : 神奈03: 94% 91% 90% 58% 71% 47% 49% 46% : 神奈04: 83% 71% 83% 65% 79% 57% 68% 83% : 神奈05: 72% 55% 74% 76% 75% 43% 50% 56% : 神奈06: 92% 68% 99% 83% 72% 85% 67% 96% : 神奈07: 72% 94% 97% 64% 70% 55% 50% 85% : 神奈08: 60% 60% 98% 90% 58% 48% 63% 62% : 神奈09: 70% 53% 73% 96% 39% 87% 93% 98% : 神奈10: 98% 93% 78% 55% 78% 58% 58% 51% : 神奈11: 45% 27% 27% 26% 64% 14% 20% 14% : 神奈12: 98% 94% 97% 70% 63% 69% 99% 97% : 神奈13: 98% 76% 62% 51% 99% 45% 41% 49% : 神奈14: 63% 98% 84% 79% 66% 66% 76% 89% : 神奈15: 84% 47% 52% 45% 76% 25% 25% 24% : 神奈16: 41% 53% 66% 55% 68% 92% 99% 87% : 神奈17: 56% 61% 61% 53% 76% 55% 67% 71% : 神奈18: 89% 70% 75% 53% 68% 59% : 新潟01: 92% 81% 81% 86% 54% 81% 91% 88% : 新潟02: 95% 81% 59% 89% 71% 85% 100% 84% : 新潟03: 83% 51% 65% 65% 50% 83% 90% 100% : 新潟04: 73% 96% 74% 82% 57% 83% 96% 78% : 新潟05: 78% 36% 63% 79% 84% 64% 58% 87% : 新潟06: 96% 96% 72% 90% 72% 67% 75% 98% : 富山01: 85% 61% 67% 80% 91% 61% 56% 51% : 富山02: 18% 36% 45% 54% 70% 25% 28% 34% : 富山03: 17% 31% 32% 84% 79% 22% 23% 44% : 石川01: 81% 94% 97% 77% 93% 48% 78% 55% : 石川02: 76% 48% 72% 65% 96% 30% 28% 49% : 石川03: 98% 30% 64% 67% 98% 70% 91% 97% : 福井01: 85% 88% 97% 99% 91% 44% 41% 55% : 福井02: 82% 37% 69% 60% 98% 56% 51% 69% : 福井03: 93% 81% 58% 64% 92% 37% : 山梨01: 87% 90% 63% 93% 51% 63% 99% 99% : 山梨02: 35% 21% 30% 99% 86% 89% 80% 96% : 山梨03: 36% 63% 75% 97% 56% 100% : 長野01: 66% 64% 95% 86% 77% 89% 77% 65% : 長野02: 49% 86% 91% 69% 50% 69% 84% 86% : 長野03: 44% 41% 52% 72% 77% 97% 82% 59% : 長野04: 89% 93% 72% 76% 59% 69% 82% 60% : 長野05: 89% 46% 65% 60% 86% 31% 51% 53% : 岐阜01: 94% 57% 77% 84% 89% 60% 47% 42% : 岐阜02: 74% 63% 51% 51% 81% 28% 32% 33% : 岐阜03: 64% 69% 96% 88% 71% 58% 71% 54% : 岐阜04: 51% 46% 48% 78% 85% 49% 77% 86% : 岐阜05: 64% 49% 61% 62% 88% 56% 59% 63% : 静岡01: 76% 99% 90% 69% 79% 66% 54% 58% : 静岡02: 29% 82% 83% 76% 68% 71% 49% 58% : 静岡03: 60% 51% 59% 52% 71% 68% 83% 83% : 静岡04: 59% 49% 75% 84% 81% 60% 72% 60% : 静岡05: 43% 64% 95% 96% 66% 54% 59% 67% : 静岡06: 92% 74% 74% 78% 47% 90% 90% 99% : 静岡07: 87% 78% 60% 99% 49% 32% 28% 23% : 静岡08: 77% 93% 98% 79% 93% 61% 64% 77% : 静岡09: 71% 96% : 愛知01: 64% 67% 67% 78% 64% 78% 67% 78% : 愛知02: 80% 51% 49% 75% 36% 71% 66% 72% : 愛知03: 84% 65% 69% 78% 45% 95% 88% 77% : 愛知04: 84% 94% 94% 92% 50% 65% 71% 83% : 愛知05: 96% 78% 87% 92% 56% 97% 85% 80% : 愛知06: 66% 94% 83% 90% 61% 50% 62% 65% : 愛知07: 54% 96% 91% 83% 60% 84% 95% 99% : 愛知08: 97% 99% 72% 93% 63% 70% 90% 98% : 愛知09: 52% 60% 89% 85% 56% 66% 87% 86% : 愛知10: 65% 86% 99% 75% 60% 63% 50% 75% : 愛知11: 70% 61% 12% 80% 51% 72% 77% 72% : 愛知12: 60% 70% 87% 81% 68% 90% 90% 70% : 愛知13: 92% 100% 96% 79% 83% 98% 87% 94% : 愛知14: 61% 96% 83% 81% 60% 83% 80% 63% : 愛知15: 86% 80% 84% 61% 75% 67% 66% 81% : 三重01: 100% 73% 89% 85% 83% 62% 64% 86% : 三重02: 62% 63% 34% 69% 52% 67% 69% 86% : 三重03: 54% 70% 51% 58% 36% 43% 44% 43% : 三重04: 97% 44% 54% 86% 96% 60% 34% 69% : 三重05: 37% 96% 64% 71% 97% 56% 68% : 滋賀01: 96% 85% 73% 95% 73% 91% 89% 94% : 滋賀02: 74% 92% 93% 80% 61% 73% 83% 80% : 滋賀03: 64% 96% 90% 100% 53% 92% 66% 61% : 滋賀04: 95% 81% 54% 84% 68% 81% : 京都01: 96% 79% 76% 61% 77% 68% 72% 70% : 京都02: 98% 92% 65% 94% 42% 58% 56% 62% : 京都03: 98% 86% 77% 99% 56% 100% 92% 90% : 京都04: 60% 45% 67% 100% 81% 67% 77% 85% : 京都05: 40% 32% 35% 46% 92% 44% 51% 51% : 京都06: 75% 92% 86% 92% 52% 90% 93% 98% : 大阪01: 85% 48% 73% 62% 67% 69% 96% 98% : 大阪02: 63% 62% 59% 97% 79% 86% 72% 75% : 大阪03: 92% 82% 82% 71% 89% 48% 75% 65% : 大阪04: 87% 85% 94% 69% 73% 94% 90% 90% : 大阪05: 75% 84% 92% 73% 81% 44% 74% 50% : 大阪06: 58% 69% 74% 67% 98% 38% 45% 64% : 大阪07: 75% 82% 76% 86% 63% 89% 83% 81% : 大阪08: 46% 66% 78% 80% 67% 93% 93% 85% : 大阪09: 83% 79% 96% 79% 65% 86% 96% 98% : 大阪10: 85% 99% 83% 82% 78% 92% 86% 75% : 大阪11: 66% 49% 41% 81% 45% 72% 83% 91% : 大阪12: 71% 95% 99% 80% 68% 65% 63% 90% : 大阪13: 92% 50% 67% 43% 84% 53% 67% 70% : 大阪14: 93% 64% 71% 59% 77% 56% 98% 98% : 大阪15: 95% 61% 74% 57% 87% 96% 86% 91% : 大阪16: 68% 80% 85% 70% 84% 49% 57% 85% : 大阪17: 71% 88% 75% 98% 70% 64% 90% 89% : 大阪18: 89% 62% 83% 67% 79% 83% 93% 92% : 大阪19: 74% 57% 56% 90% 64% 77% 91% 87% : 兵庫01: 96% 100% 99% 68% 66% 96% 86% 82% : 兵庫02: 86% 84% 96% 79% 80% 50% 62% 46% : 兵庫03: 71% 75% 69% 94% 66% 82% 52% 40% : 兵庫04: 59% 36% 64% 64% 72% 75% 56% 31% : 兵庫05: 85% 84% 97% 75% 77% 49% 55% 56% : 兵庫06: 91% 87% 88% 91% 60% 79% 53% 75% : 兵庫07: 69% 33% 87% 66% 52% 77% 71% 43% : 兵庫08: 79% 67% 84% 76% 98% 64% 64% 57% : 兵庫09: 89% 92% 75% 45% 56% 37% 34% 25% : 兵庫10: 96% 60% 79% 80% 70% 62% 57% 40% : 兵庫11: 94% 86% 79% 98% 59% 80% 83% 35% : 兵庫12: 85% 95% 96% 92% 76% 69% 55% 39% : 奈良01: 83% 74% 82% 91% 51% 89% 85% 97% : 奈良02: 70% 90% 89% 78% 96% 52% 40% 42% : 奈良03: 89% 73% 72% 72% 68% 66% 59% 46% : 奈良04: 99% 87% 44% 71% 98% 44% 49% : 和歌01: 87% 78% 45% 78% 60% 100% 88% 79% : 和歌02: 64% 46% 82% 70% 79% 49% 56% 28% : 和歌03: 87% 40% 28% 37% 87% 46% 31% 37% : 鳥取01: 30% 69% 27% 45% 54% 14% 25% 20% : 鳥取02: 93% 84% 97% 92% 99% 52% 64% 73% : 島根01: 63% 50% 52% 47% 66% 42% 38% 68% : 島根02: 73% 45% 35% 57% 80% 36% 28% 29% : 島根03: 37% 40% : 岡山01: 47% 57% 62% 48% 96% 41% 62% 65% : 岡山02: 58% 59% 88% 97% 63% 70% 80% 75% : 岡山03: 41% 44% 38% 59% 57% 73% 78% 94% : 岡山04: 37% 36% 63% 94% 72% 71% 83% 78% : 岡山05: 34% 49% 67% 59% 85% 40% 26% 27% : 広島01: 65% 58% 67% 55% 92% 25% 26% 28% : 広島02: 90% 87% 76% 87% 74% 56% 75% 71% : 広島03: 87% 80% 50% 63% 72% 59% 78% 75% : 広島04: 29% 39% 58% 62% 95% 58% 30% 26% : 広島05: 43% 55% 65% 94% 94% 49% 29% 32% : 広島06: 72% 58% 86% 76% 51% 86% 73% 81% : 広島07: 73% 61% 81% 85% 83% 56% 39% 50% : 山口01: 31% 36% 48% 43% 66% 27% 33% 27% : 山口02: 97% 93% 83% 99% 90% 51% 60% 35% : 山口03: 27% 32% 46% 47% 64% 27% 31% 40% : 山口04: 64% 39% 15% 27% 48% 16% 17% 18% : 徳島01: 87% 68% 74% 81% 52% 67% 75% 77% : 徳島02: 19% 78% 87% 75% 80% 66% 35% 32% : 徳島03: 94% 72% 58% 68% 99% 72% : 香川01: 89% 73% 79% 88% 83% 75% 89% 97% : 香川02: 27% 63% 68% 70% 72% 91% 73% 73% : 香川03: 78% 42% 27% 36% 73% 50% 34% 45% : 愛媛01: 95% 48% 39% 43% 98% 43% 75% 38% : 愛媛02: 23% 38% 44% 56% 90% 63% 53% 54% : 愛媛03: 48% 43% 55% 66% 77% 60% 81% 76% : 愛媛04: 54% 20% 32% 46% 90% 78% 71% 70% : 高知01: 94% 83% 84% 92% 89% 59% 49% 55% : 高知02: 36% 52% 43% 64% 66% 36% 51% 77% : 高知03: 51% 38% 39% 73% 87% 40% : 福岡01: 76% 83% 58% 93% 72% 47% 72% 52% : 福岡02: 74% 85% 90% 71% 66% 65% 82% 93% : 福岡03: 75% 77% 94% 75% 76% 49% 57% 69% : 福岡04: 72% 89% 83% 75% 89% 49% 60% 49% : 福岡05: 78% 63% 77% 75% 85% 50% 65% 78% : 福岡06: 68% 86% 95% 83% 86% 54% 39% 33% : 福岡07: 77% 56% 41% 67% 82% 56% 42% 53% : 福岡08: 71% 54% 57% 60% 58% 31% 40% 38% : 福岡09: 84% 80% 97% 88% 89% 64% 82% 86% : 福岡10: 85% 54% 87% 67% 86% 63% 72% 91% : 福岡11: 77% 96% 79% 99% 58% 44% 28% 52% : 佐賀01: 96% 90% 95% 89% 78% 89% 97% 75% : 佐賀02: 66% 32% 21% 77% 92% 89% 72% 94% : 佐賀03: 24% 25% 36% 56% 32% 28% : 長崎01: 85% 85% 85% 92% 68% 89% 97% 88% : 長崎02: 81% 22% 40% 72% 88% 55% 76% 59% : 長崎03: 82% 55% 92% 89% 98% 75% 38% 42% : 長崎04: 59% 94% 53% 69% 95% 66% 69% 83% : 熊本01: 57% 94% 72% 98% 71% 70% 84% 78% : 熊本02: 81% 48% 79% 71% 95% 38% 40% 73% : 熊本03: 98% 47% 96% 91% 92% 40% 30% 36% : 熊本04: 62% 14% 27% 46% 64% 36% 32% 59% : 熊本05: 91% 94% 61% 62% 77% 47% 30% : 大分01: 54% 98% 96% 96% 57% 88% 93% 97% : 大分02: 21% 75% 69% 81% 96% 49% 69% 79% : 大分03: 81% 53% 90% 88% 93% 63% 46% 85% : 大分04: 90% 93% : 宮崎01: 96% 83% 72% 47% 50% 55% 44% 60% : 宮崎02: 69% 36% 89% 61% 68% 36% 28% 30% : 宮崎03: 69% 76% 49% 80% 44% 22% 27% 29% : 鹿児01: 82% 90% 83% 79% 80% 56% 70% 98% : 鹿児02: 97% 89% 93% 82% 78% 42% 35% 44% : 鹿児03: 39% 26% 40% 75% 74% 91% 72% 88% : 鹿児04: 49% 52% 56% 63% 97% 40% 30% 41% : 鹿児05: 55% 34% 51% 51% 62% 20% 26% : 沖縄01: 89% 59% 90% 93% 82% 72% 92% 90% : 沖縄02: 78% 35% 64% 84% 60% 75% 61% 70% : 沖縄03: 57% 76% 94% 71% 49% 83% 67% 70% : 沖縄04: 57% 61% 80% 46% 92% 92% : --------------------------------------------------
*以下の図のデータは四捨五入する前の数値で集計しているため、上記データからの集計とは一致しない 図1: 各回選挙の惜敗率の平均値と惜敗率標準偏差 1996年から2017年までの変化を見るために線で結んでいる 大まかには、右下であるほど全体として接戦であったことを、左下であるほど全体として一方的であったことを示す ただし、"接戦"の意味によっては必ずしも上記の説明とは合致しない 実際、図2&3で見るように、惜敗率90%以上の選挙区は2005/2009よりもこれ以前の方が割合が高い 図1 図2: 惜敗率分布(1) 横軸が惜敗率を、縦軸は横軸の値以上の惜敗率だった選挙区の割合を示す 図2 図3: 惜敗率分布(2) 図2の惜敗率90%以上の部分を拡大したもの 図3